Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2017 | 26 | 2 |

Tytuł artykułu

A systematic simulating assessment within reach greenhouse gas target by reducing PM2.5 concentrations in China


Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji



Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and governing pollutant emissions would cause real synergy. Therefore, China has proposed achieving the target of reducing fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) concentrations to 35 ug/m3 , as it pollutes the most. The prioritized purpose of this dissertation is aimed at constructing a comprehensive framework by integrating the PM₂.₅ target, influencing factors, and countermeasures together to shed some new light on the PM₂.₅ governing problem. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model containing a pollution abatement block is first introduced. Accordingly, four different scenarios about the PM₂.₅ target implementation plan are designed for analyzing the impacts on China’s macroeconomics, energy demand, and environmental quality, and we establish a PM₂.₅ system dynamics model in the principle of system dynamics theory afterward. Subsequently, the model offers six various countermeasures in terms of declining the concentration of PM₂.₅ on the basis of the causality diagram. Consequently, the scenario analysis and system simulation results illustrate that the decline in PM₂.₅ concentration at annual average rates of 3.07%, 4.61%, and 1.53% from 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2025, and 2026 to 2030 is significantly beneficial for achieving the PM₂.₅ target. Additionally, three effective countermeasures could be approximately reaching the PM₂.₅ concentration target in 2030.

Słowa kluczowe








Opis fizyczny



  • School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No.619 Yonghua Street, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China
  • School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No.619 Yonghua Street, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China
  • Center for Innovation Development and Energy Economics Research, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China
  • School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No.619 Yonghua Street, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China


  • 1. Wang K, Wei Y.M. China’s regional industrial energy efficiency and carbon emission abatement costs. Applied Energy [J], 130, 617, 2014.
  • 2. Michel D.E., Hanna F, Niklas H, Annemiek A, Nicklas F, Andries F. H., Jos G.J., Mark R, Heleen V.S. Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030? Energy Policy[J], 89, 224, 2016.
  • 3. Mehmet C. Determining the bioclimatic comfort in Kastamonu City. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment[J], 187, 640, 2015.
  • 4. Hakan S., Mehmet C., Nur B. Effects of Forests on Amounts of CO₂: Case Study of Kastamonu and Ilgaz Mountain National Parks. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies[J], 24 (1), 253, 2015.
  • 5. Mehmet C., Hakan S. Measuring the Impact of Selected Plants on Indoor CO₂ Concentrations. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies[J], 25 (3), 973, 2016.
  • 6. Mehmet C. A Change in the Amount of CO₂ at the Center of the Examination Halls: Case Study of Turkey. Ethno Med[J], 10 (2), 146, 2016.
  • 7. Yasmany M., Pierre H., Matthew P.F., Alberto M. Secondary organic aerosol contributions to PM₂.₅ in Monterrey,Mexico: Temporal and seasonal variation. Atmospheric Research[J], 153, 348, 2015.
  • 8. Bradley B. Pedestrian exposure to near-roadway PM₂.₅in mixed-use urban corridors: A case study of Omaha, Nebraska . Sustainable Cities and Society[J], 15, 64, 2015.
  • 9. Amod K.P., Michael N.B, Jiwan A, Palle V, Ram K.C., Prakash S.S., Anil K.R., Kirk R.S. PM₂.₅ in household kitchens of Bhaktapur, Nepal, using four different cooking fuels. Atmospheric Environment[J], 113, 159, 2015.
  • 10. Wang J., Li X., Jiang N., Zhang W.K., Zhang R.Q., Tang X.Y.. Long term observations of PM₂.₅-associated PAHs: Comparisons between normal and episode days. Atmospheric Environment[J], 104, 228, 2015.
  • 11. Mauro M., Stefania S., Giancarlo R., Bruno P. Source apportionment of PM₂.₅ at multiple sites in Venice (Italy): Spatial variability and the role of weather. Atmospheric Environment[J], 98, 78, 2014.
  • 12. Wang D.X., Hu J.L., Xu Y., Lv D., Xie X.Y., Michael K., Xing J., Zhang H.L., Ying Q. Source contributions to primary and secondary inorganic particulate matter during a severe wintertime PM₂.₅ pollution episode in Xi'an, China. Atmospheric Environment[J], 97, 182, 2014.
  • 13. Ray M., Kate B., Francisco P.S. Alignment of policies to maximize the climate benefits of diesel vehicles through control of particulate matter and black carbon emissions. Energy Policy[J], 54, 54, 2013.
  • 14. Yue X., Wu Y., Hao J.M., Pang Y., Ma Y., Li Y., Li B.S., Bao X.F. Fuel quality management versus vehicle emission control in China, status quo and future perspectives. Energy Policy[J], 79, 87, 2015.
  • 15. Mikuška P., Křůmal K., Večeřa Z. Characterization of organic compounds in the PM₂.₅ aerosols in winter in an industrial urban area. Atmospheric Environment[J], 105, 97, 2015.
  • 16. Wang Y.G., Ying Q., Hu J.L., Zhang H.L. Spatial and temporal variations of six criteria air pollutants in 31 provincial capital cities in China during 2013-2014. Environment International [J], 73, 413, 2014.
  • 17. Wu C.F., Lin H.I., Ho C.C., Yang T.H., Chen C.C., Chan C.C. Modeling horizontal and vertical variation in intraurban exposure to PM₂.₅ concentrations and compositions. Environmental Research[J], 133, 96, 2014.
  • 18. Cheng Y., He H.B., Du Z.Y., Zheng M., Duan F.K., Ma Y.L. Humidity plays an important role in the PM₂.₅ pollution in Beijing. Environmental Pollution[J], 197, 68, 2015.
  • 19. Nathaniel G., Susan E.P. Residential demand response reduces air pollutant emissions on peak electricity demand days in New York City. Energy Policy[J], 59, 459, 2013.
  • 20. Zhao Y.L., Lin Z.Q., Jia R.H., Li G.J., Xi Z.G., Wang D.Y. Transgenerational effects of traffic-related fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) on nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. Journal of Hazardous Materials [J], 274, 106, 2014.
  • 21. Michal P.S, Gabriela D.K., Barbara K., Marie F., Steffen L., Lars G. Evaluation of building characteristics in 27 dwellings in Denmark and the effect of using particle filtration units on PM₂.₅ concentrations. Building and Environment [J], 73, 55, 2014.
  • 22. Li J.H. The introduction of IO and CGE model. IO and CGE model applied to the study of macroeconomics [M]. Shanghai University of Finance and Economics press, China, 1, 2, 2013.
  • 23. Virginie D., Jean-Marc P., Cristina S. Biofuels, tax policies and oil prices in France: Insights from a dynamic CGE model. Energy Policy [J], 66, 603, 2014.
  • 24. Asbjørn A., Bård R., Wei T.Y., Jón E.K., Helene M., Ulrike N., Hauke S. An economic evaluation of solar radiation management. Science of The Total Environment [J], 532, 61, 2015.
  • 25. Arshad M., Charles O.P.M. Carbon pricing and energy efficiency improvement – why to miss the interaction for developing economies? An illustrative CGE based application to the Pakistan case. Energy Policy[J], 67, 87, 2014.
  • 26. Claudia H., Andreas L., Tim M. A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets. Energy Policy [J], 55, 27, 2013.
  • 27. Suthin W., John A.A. Is there a role for biofuels in promoting energy self sufficiency and security? A CGE analysis of biofuel policy in Thailand. Energy Policy[J], 55, 543, 2013.
  • 28. Johannes B. The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan. Technological Forecasting and Social Change[J], Part A, 90, 178, 2015.
  • 29. Tao J., Zhang L.M., Zhang Z.S., Huang R.J., Wu Y.F., Zhang R.J., Cao J.J., Zhang Y.H. Control of PM₂.₅ in Guangzhou during the 16th Asian Games period: Implication for hazy weather prevention. Science of the Total Environment [J], 508, 57, 2015.
  • 30. Alejandra S., Alejandro D.G. Proposals to enhance thermal efficiency programs and air pollution control in south-central Chile. Energy Policy [J], 79, 48, 2015.
  • 31. Sun J., Jeremy S., Wang J., Joshua S.F., Wang S.X. Cost estimate of multi-pollutant abatement from the power sector in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. Energy Policy[J], 69, 478, 2014.
  • 32. Santiago M., Luis J.M., Blázquez L.F. A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain. Energy Policy [J], 60, 142, 2013.
  • 33. Juneseuk S., Shin W.S., Lee C.Y. An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics. Energy Policy [J], 54, 72, 2013.
  • 34. Ali Kerem S., Mustafa H. Exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in Turkish electric power industry: System dynamics approach. Energy Policy [J], 60, 675, 2013.
  • 35. Yu S.W., Wei Y.M. Prediction of China’s coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model. Energy Policy[J], 42, 521, 2012.
  • 36. Hamed V.A., Salman J., Hossein D., Jafar H., Saeed M. A system dynamics modeling for urban air pollution: A case study of Tehran, Iran. Transportation Research Part D[J], 31, 21, 2014.
  • 37. Sarath K.G., Dinesh M. Re-fueling road transport for better air quality in India. Energy Policy[J], 68, 556, 2014.
  • 38. Alexander G., Cristián M.M. Wind, coal, and the cost of environmental externalities. Energy Policy[J], 62, 1385, 2013.
  • 39. Tommi E., Niko K., Jarkko T., Laura S., Kaarle K., Olli S., Mikko S., Jorma J., Ilkka S. A multi-criteria analysis of climate, health and acidification impacts due to green house gases and air pollution – The case of household-level heating technologies. Energy Policy [J], 74, 499, 2014.

Typ dokumentu



Identyfikator YADDA

JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.