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Tytuł artykułu

The history of research on the "pig cycle"

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The subject of the author's considerations is the “pig cycle” phenomenon, which had been first formulated by Samuel Benner in 1895. Since then, the mechanism of the pig cycle has been investigated and discussed by many foreign and Polish scientists. The key fields of American studies on the pig cycle such as: reasons for cyclic development of pig production, cobweb theorem, duration of the cycle and its particular phases, are presented in the article. The results of researches conducted during the last several years are also discussed. An important part of the article is devoted to the Polish pig cycle in both pre- and post-World War II periods. In the post-war period the researchers who examined the pig cycle problem had to face a difficult question whether cyclic fluctuations of hog production could take place in centrally planned economy. The article also points out a very practical aspect of the study, related to stabilization of the pig market. Different approaches to agricultural policies in some countries and periods are also presented.

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Opis fizyczny

p.207-217,ref.

Twórcy

autor
  • Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland

Bibliografia

  • Albrecht J.E.: Swine production industry growth. Clemenson University Extension Newsletter, July 20, 1999.
  • Balcerowicz L.: Expensive struggle with the market. Wprost, nr 2956.
  • Bessler D.A., Kling J.L.: Forecasting vector autoregression with bayesian priors. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 68, No. 1, February 1986.
  • Breimyer H.F.: Emerging phenomena: A cycle in hog. Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 41, November 1959.
  • Buhr B.: Livestock production and price cycles. Dep. of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Spring 1998.
  • Chavas J.P., Holt M.: On nonlinear dynamics: the case of the pork cycle. American Journal of Agriculture Economics, vol. 73, No. 3, August 1991.
  • Chojnacka H.: Basis of regional diversity in prices of agricultural products. Studies and Materials IAFE, vol. 128, Warszawa 1966.
  • Coase R.H., Fowler R.F.: Bacon production and the pig cycle in Great Britain. Economica, No. 2, May 1935.
  • Dean G.W., Heady E.O.: Changes in supply response and elasticity for hogs. Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 14, No. 4, November 1958.
  • Dieckhoff J.E.: Determination of United States live hog prices: 1970-Present. University of Missouri, December 2002.
  • Fieldhouse R.: Stabilizing pork producers' financial roller coaster. Ontario Pork 2004.
  • Futrell G.A., Mueller A.G., Grimes G.: Understanding hog production and hog cycles.Pork Industry Handbook, Chapter 9 – Marketing, Pardue University, August 2003.
  • Grimes G.: Feedstuffs. May 27, 1996.
  • Harlow A.: The hog cycle and the cobweb theorem. Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 42, No. 4, November 1960.
  • Hayenga M., Hacklander D.: Monthly supply-demand relationships for fed cattle and hogs. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 52, No. 4, 1970.
  • Hayes D.J., Schmitz A.: Hog cycles and countercyclical production response. American Journal of Agriculture Economics, vol. 69, November 1987.
  • Holt M.T., Craig L.A.: Nonlinear dynamics and the U.S. hog-corn cycle: a smooth transition autoregressive approach. North Carolina State University, March 2004.
  • Jelavich M.: Distributed lag estimation of harmonic motion in the hog market. American Journal of Agriculture Economics, vol. 55, No. 2, May 1973.
  • Kenyon D., Purcell W.: Price discovery and risk management in an industrialized porksector. Research Institute on Livestock Pricing, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, January 2000.
  • Kozłowski Z.: On the system of economic impact on stabilisation of pigs development. Part I. Modern Countryside, No. 3, 1964.
  • Larson A.: The cycle as harmonic motion. Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 56, No. 2, May 1964.
  • Lawrence J.: Does the hog cycle still work? Iowa Farm Outlook, February 14. 2000.
  • Małkowski J.: Entry – Pig cycle. Encyclopaedia of Agribusiness (edited by A. Woś), Innovation Foundation. Higher School of Social Economics, Warsaw 1998.
  • Małkowski J.: Efficiency of regulating production and supply of pigs. CooperativeResearch Institute, Warsaw 1971.
  • Małkowski J.: Regulation of animal production development in Poland. PWRiL Warsaw 1978.
  • Małkowski J.: Production and meat consumption in Poland and in the United States. Studies and Monographs, No. 24. IAFE, Warsaw 1986.
  • Parvin D. W., Jr.: Hog price flexibilities as related to cycle phases. Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, July 1972.
  • Perczyński M., Charszewski W.: Problems of regulating peasant economy development. PWRiL, Warsaw. 1963.
  • Plain R., Williams J.E.: Adaptative planning under price uncertainty in pork production. Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, No. 13.2, December 1981.
  • Pohorille M.: Introduction to the theory of regulating agricultural prices. PWN, Warszawa 1960.
  • Pohorille M.: Entry ”Pig cycles”. Small Encyclopaedia of Economy, Warsaw 1962.
  • Reddy A. R.: Livestock cycles. Meat, Chapter 8, University of Wisconsin 1999.
  • Ruth M., Cloutier L.M., Garcia Ph. A.: Nonlinear model of information and coordination in hog production: testing the coasian-fowlerian dynamics hypotheses. Paper prepared for presentation of the American Agricultural Economics Association. Salt Lake City, August 1998.
  • Schmidt S., Mandecki S.: Production of pigs in the light of economic research. Economic Society in Kraków, 1933.
  • Schmidt S., Steczkowski J.: Production of pigs and pork in the light of statistics. Issues of Agricultural Economy, No. 4, 1960.
  • Shepherd G.: Controlling corn and hog supplies and prices. USDA Tech. Bul., No 826, June 1942.
  • Shonkwiler J.S, Spreen T.H.: Statistical significance and stability of the hog cycle. Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, December 1986.
  • Snitynsky R.: Boom, Bust & Beating the hog cycle. Western Hog Journal, Spring 2003.
  • Stearns L.D., Petn T.A.: Hog market cycles. North Dakota 1996.
  • Stilman R.P.: Hog operations becoming fewer, larger and more efficient livestock and poultry. Livestock and Poultry Outlook and Situation Report, USDA, ERS, December 1984.
  • Streips M.A.: The problem of the persistent hog price cycle: a chaotic solution. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol.77, No. 5, December 1987.
  • Talpaz H.: Multi-frequency cobweb model: decomposition of the hog cycle. American Journal of Agriculture Economics, vol. 56, No. 1, February 1974.
  • Tomek W., Robinson K.: Creating prices of agricultural products. PWN, Warsaw 2001.
  • Woś A.: Polish agriculture 1945-2000. Comparative system analysis. Warsaw 2000.

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