Wkład Zakładu Klimatologii Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego w badania klimatu Polski

• Autorzy: Stopa-Boryczka M.

Warianty tytułu

EN

The contribution made by the Department of Climatology of the University of Warsaw to the studies of climate in Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

The particular character of the Department of Climatology of the University of Warsaw with respect to other scientific establishments both at home and abroad appears in the domain of modelling of the spatial-temporal climate changes. Approximation of the fields of weather variables has been performed with the equations of linear, plane and hyperplane regression for the cases of Poland, Iraq and Vietnam. For the area of Poland the regression polynomials of the second, third, fourth and fifth order were – exceptionally - applied, the respective variables being the three coordinates of location, namely geographical latitude φ and longitude λ and the elevation above the sea level H. The polynomials of higher orders, especially of the fourth order, proved to be an excellent tool for the studies of climate. Introduction of absolute elevation into the regression polynomials significantly enhanced the precision of models, because climatological elements are strongly correlated with the elevation variable. This constitutes an important contribution of the Department of Climatology of the University of Warsaw to the perfectioning of the statistical models describing the fields of weather variables. The new methods of inquiry, introduced by the Department in the domain of determination of the cyclicity of climate (identification of the true periods of cycles) made it possible to separate the natural component, because it is subject to periodical changes. The resultant of these changes was described with several or a dozen regression sinusoids based on the identified true cycles. On the other hand, the anthropogenic changes are measured by the linear component of the temporal trend. The same method was also applied to the study of periodicity of accumulation of the lake sediments, of the atmospheric circulation, and of the river discharges. The already obtained results of studies - the forecasts of the climate of Poland - have high significance not only from the cognitive point of view, but also from the practical one. They can be as well made use of for the forecasting of changes in the natural environment. The climate warming may cause the increase of intensity of water circulation in nature. Presently, forecasts are made of the increased evaporation and runoff, decreased volume of water stocked in soil, as well as intensified erosion of soils. The subsequent consequence of the warming of climate would be the raising of the level of the Baltic Sea, entailing the increase of the risk of storm floods, inundation of the coastal lowlands, and intensification of destruction of the shoreline, especially of the coastal cliffs.

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Prace i Studia Geograficzne
• Rocznik: 1997
• Tom: 20
• Opis fizyczny: s.13-35

Twórcy

autor

Stopa-Boryczka M.