Wpływ potencjalnych zmian klimatycznych na zdolność konkurencyjną głównych gatunków drzew w Polsce

• Autorzy: Zajaczkowski J. , Brzeziecki B. , Perzanowski K. , Kozak I.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Impact of potential climate changes on competitive ability of main forest tree species in Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

An influence of environmental changes upon forest tree species competition was studied for suggested scenario of environmental changes (3−4°C increase of monthly temperatures), 8 main tree species and 6 natural regions. For a synthetic assessment of the reaction of various species for thermal and higric parameters of the climate, the growth multipliers DDGF and SMGF were used. The main environmental factor influencing future growth of tree species in Poland will be water shortage due to increased evapotranspiration. Regional decrease of water sensitive species importance, eg. alder, spruce and birch, accompanied by country−scale expansion of highly competitive, late−successional species, eg. beech and hornbeam is expected.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

zmiany klimatyczne; oddzialywanie na rosliny; drzewa lesne; gatunki lasotworcze; jodla pospolita; Abies alba; olsza czarna; Alnus glutinosa; brzoza brodawkowata; Betula pendula; buk zwyczajny; Fagus sylvatica; jesion wyniosly; Fraxinus excelsior; swierk pospolity; Picea abies; sosna zwyczajna; Pinus sylvestris; dab szypulkowy; Quercus robur; konkurencyjnosc

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Sylwan
• Rocznik: 2013
• Tom: 157
• Numer: 04
• Opis fizyczny: s.253-261,rys.,tab.,bibliogr.

Twórcy

autor

Zajaczkowski J.

• Katedra Hodowli Lasu, Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego, ul.Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warszawa

autor

Brzeziecki B.

• Katedra Hodowli Lasu, Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego, ul.Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warszawa

autor

Perzanowski K.

• Katedra Ekologii Stosowanej, Katolicki Uniwersytet Lubelski, ul.Konstantynów 1, 20-708 Lublin

autor

Kozak I.

• Katedra Ekologii Krajobrazu, Katolicki Uniwersytet Lubelski, ul.Konstantynów 1, 20-708 Lublin

Bibliografia

• Aitken S., Yeaman S., Holliday J. A., Wang T., Curtis McLane S. 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications 1: 95−111.
• Bodin P., Wiman B. L. 2007. The usefulness of stability concepts in forest management when coping with increasing climate uncertainties. For. Ecol. Manage. 242: 541−552.
• Brooker R., Travis J., Clark E. J., Dytham C. 2007. Modelling species’ range shifts in a changing climate: The impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change. J. Theor. Biol. 245: 59−65.
• Brzeziecki B. 1999. Ekologiczny model drzewostanu. Konstrukcja. Parametryzacja. Przykłady zastosowań. Wyd. SGGW. Warszawa.
• Brzeziecki B., Keczyński A., Zajączkowski J., Drozdowski S., Gawron L., Buraczyk W., Bielak K.,
• Szeligowski H., Dzwonkowski M. 2012. Zagrożone gatunki drzew Białowieskiego Parku Narodowego (Rezerwat Ścisły). Sylwan 156 (4). 252−261.
• Bugmann H. 2001. A review of forest gap models. Climatic Change 51: 259−305.
• Bugmann H. 1997. Sensitivity of forests in the European Alps to future climatic changes. Climate Research 8: 35−44
• Bugmann H., Cramer W. 1998. Improving the behaviour of forest gap models along drought gradients. For. Ecol. Manage: 103: 247−263.
• Bugmann H., Pfister C. 2000. Impact of Interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition. Regional Environ. Change 1: 112−125.
• Bugmann H., Solomon A. M. 2000. Explaining forest composition and biomass across multiple biogeographical regions. Ecological Applications 10 (1): 95−114.
• Cheaib A., Badeau V., Boe J., Chuine I., Delire C., Dufrene E. 2012. Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty. Ecology Letters 15: 533−544.
• Chomicz K. 1977. Materiały do poznania agroklimatu Polski. PWN, Warszawa
• Clark J. S., Bell D. M., Hersh M. H., Nichols L. 2011. Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates. Global Change Biology 17: 1834−1849.
• Dale V. H., Tharp M. L., Lannom K. O., Hodges D. 2010. Modeling transient response of forests to climate change. Science of the Total Environ. 408: 1888–1901.
• D’Amato A. W., Bradford J., Fraver S., Palik B. 2011. Forest management for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from long−term silviculture experiments. For. Ecol. Manage. 262 (5): 803−816.
• Garcia−Lopez J. M., Allule C. 2012. A phytoclimatic−based indicator for assessing the inherent responsitivity of the European forests to climate change. Ecological Indicators 18: 73−81.
• Gessler A., Keitel K., Kreuzwieser J., Seiler W., Rennenberg H. 2007. Potential risks for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in a changing climate. Trees 21: 1−11.
• Giorgi F., Xunqiang B., Pal J. 2004. Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071−2100). Climate Dynamics 23: 839−858.
• Kozak I., Ferchmin M., Potaczała G., Kozak O., Seńko Z., Baraniuk−Otręba A. 2005. Prognozowanie zmian lasu mieszanego w Kampinoskim Parku Narodowym z zastosowaniem modelu FORKOME. Acta Sci. Pol. Silv. Colendar. Rat. Ind. Lignar. 4 (2): 49−62.
• Lindner M., Maroschek M., Netherer S., Kremer A., Barbati A., Garcia−Gonzalo J., Seidl R., Delzon S., Corona P., Kolström M., Lexer M. J., Marchetti M. 2010. Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. For. Ecol. Manage. 259 (4): 698−709.
• Malmsheimer R. W., Heffernan P., Brink S., Crandall D., Deneke F., Galik C., Gee E., Helms J. A., McClure N., Mortimer M., Ruddell S., Smith M., Stewart J. 2008. Forest management solutions for mitigating climate change in the United States. J. For. 106 (3): 115−173.
• Milada M., Schaich H., Burgi M., Konold W. 2011. Climate change and nature conservation in Central European forests: A review of consequences, concepts and challenges. For. Ecol. Manage. 261: 829−843.
• Morin X., Fahse L., Scherer−Lorenzen M., Bugmann H. 2011. Tree species richness promotes productivity in temperate forests through strong complementarity between species. Ecology Letters 14: 1211−1219.
• Münkemüller T., Reineking B., Travis J., Bugmann H., Johst K. 2009. Disappearing refuges in time and space: how environmental change threatens species coexistence. Theoretical Ecology 2: 217−227.
• Räisänen J., Hansson U., Ullerstig A., Döscher R., Graham L. P., Jones C., Meier H. E. M., Samuelsson P., Willén U. 2004. European climate in the late twenty−first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynamics 22: 13−31.
• Rötzer T., Seifert T., Pretzsch H. 2009. Modelling above and below ground carbon dynamics in a mixed beech and spruce stand influenced by climate. Europ. J. For. Res. 128: 171−182.
• Seidl R. 2004. Response of European mountain forests to abrupt climate change. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Interim Report IR−04−055. 65.