Statistical downscaling of probability density function of daily precipitation on the Polish coast

• Autorzy: Wojcik R. , Pilarski M. , Mietus M.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this study was to recognize the possibility of downscaling probability density function (PDF) of daily precipitation by means of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Sea level pressure (SLP) over Europe and the North Atlantic was used as a predictor. A skilful statistical model could be used to generate projections of future changes of precipitation PDF driven by GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations. Daily precipitation totals from 8 stations located on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea covering the period 1961-2010 were used to estimate the gamma distribution parameters, and only wet days (i.e. ≥0.1mm) were taken in the analysis. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparison of empirical and theoretical (gamma-distributed) quantiles proved that gamma distribution gives a reliable description of daily precipitation totals. The validation of CCA models applied to gamma parameters revealed that the reliable reconstruction of precipitation PDF is possible only for average long-term conditions. In the case of individual months/seasons the agreement between empirical and reconstructed quantiles is poor. This study shows the potential of modelling of precipitation PDF, however efforts should be made to improve model performance by establishing more reliable links between regional forcing and the variability of the gamma parameters.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

statistical downscaling; probability density function; daily precipitation; Polish coast; environmental impact

• Wydawca: -
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 02
• Numer: 1
• Opis fizyczny: p.27-36,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor

Wojcik R.

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Maritime Branch in Gdynia, Waszyngtona 42, 81-342 Gdynia, Poland

autor

Pilarski M.

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Podlesna 61, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Mietus M.

• Department of Meterology and Climatology, Institute of Geography, University of Gdansk, Bazynskiego 4, 80-309 Gdansk, Poland

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