Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2015 | 03 | 2 |

Tytuł artykułu

On the long-term variability of temperature trends and changes in surface air temperature in Kolkata Weather Observatory, West Bengal, India

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji



The impact of climate change on annual air temperature has received a great deal of attention from climatologists worldwide. Many studies have been conducted to illustrate that changes in temperature are becoming evident on a global scale. Air temperature, one of the most important components of climate parameters, has been widely measured as a starting point towards the apprehension of climate change and variability. The main objective of this study is to analyse the temporal variability of mean monthly temperature for the period of 1941 to 2010 (70 years). To detect the magnitude of trend in mean monthly temperature time series, we have used non-parametric test methods such as The Mann-Kendall test, often combined with the Theil-Sen’s robust estimate of linear trend. Whatever test is used, the user should understand the underlying assumptions of both the technique used to generate the estimates of a trend and the statistical methods used for testing. The results of this analysis reveal that four months – January, February, March and December – indicate a decreasing trend in average temperature, while the remaining eight months have an increasing trend. The magnitude of Mann-Kendall trend statistic Zc for this declining temperature and the magnitude of slope for the months of January, February and December are confirmed at the high significance levels of α = 0.001, 0.01 and 0.1 respectively. Though, the overall trend is positive for monthly as well as seasonally efficient time series.








Opis fizyczny



  • Department of Geography and Environment Management, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore 721102, India
  • Department of Geography, Presidency University, Kolkata 700073, India
  • Department of Geography, Egra S.S.B College, Egra 721429, India


  • Adger W.N., Aggarwal P., Agrawala S., Alcamo J., 2007, Summary for policy-makers, [in:] Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, M. Parry, O. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. van der Linden, C. Hanson (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 7-22
  • Alexandersson H., 1984, A homogeneity test based on ratios and applied to precipitation series, Meteorologiska Institutionen, Kungl. Universitetet, Uppsala
  • Alexandersson H., 1986, A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, Journal of Climatology, 6 (6), 661-675, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3370060607
  • Alexandersson H., Moberg A., 1997, Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part I: Homogeneity test for linear trends, International Journal of Climatology, 17 (1), 25-34, DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199701)17:1<25::AID-JOC103>3.0.CO;2-J
  • Alexandersson J., Maier E., Reithinger N., 1995, A robust and efficient three-layered dialogue component for a speech-tospeech translation system, [in:] Proceedings of the 7th Conference on European Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 188-193
  • Anderson R.L., 1942, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 13 (1), 1-13, DOI:10.1214/aoms/1177731638
  • Arora M., Goel N.K., Singh P., 2005, Evaluation of temperature trends over India, Water and Energy Abstracts, 15 (2), 21-21
  • Casa A. de la, Nasello O., 2010, Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina, Atmospheric Research, 95 (4), 419-427, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.11.005
  • Dash S.K., Jenamani R.K., Kalsi S.R., Panda S.K., 2007, Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India, Climatic Change, 85 (3-4), 299-321, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9305-9
  • Gilbert R.O., 1987, Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring, John Wiley & Sons, New York, USA, 334 pp.
  • Hamed K.H., Rao A.R., 1998, A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, Journal of Hydrology, 204 (1), 182-196
  • Hawkins D.M., 1977, Testing a sequence of observations for a shift in location, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72 (357), 180-186, DOI: 10.2307/2286934
  • Hingane L.S., Rupa Kumar K., Ramana Murty B.V., 1985, Long‐term trends of surface air temperature in India, Journal of Climatology, 5 (5), 521-528
  • Hollander M., Wolfe D.A., 1973, Nonparametric statistical methods, John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1074 pp.
  • IPCC, 2007, Climate change 2007 – the physical science basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment report of the IPCC, (Vol. 4), Cambridge University Press
  • Jagannathan P., Parthasarathy B., 1973, Trends and periodicities of rainfall over India, Monthly Weather Review, 101 (4), 371-375, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1973)101<0371:TAPORO>2.3.CO;2
  • Kendall M.G., Stuart A., 1968, Analysis of variance in the linear mode, The advanced theory of statistics, 3, 1-56
  • Kothawale D.R., Rupa Kumar K., 2005, On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India, Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (18), L18714, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023528
  • Pant G.B., Rupa Kumar K. (eds.), 1997, Climates of South Asia, John Wiley & Sons Inc., Chichester, 320 pp.
  • Pramanik S.K., Jagannathan P., 1953, Climatic changes in India. (I)-Rainfall, Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 4, 291-309
  • Salas J.D., Delleur J.W., Yevjevich V., Lane W.L., 1980, Applied modeling of hydrologic time series, Water Resources Publication, Littleton, Colorado, USA, 484 pp.
  • Sarker R.P., Thapliyal V., 1988, Climate change and variability, Mausam, 39, 127-138
  • Sen P.K., 1968, Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63 (324), 1379-1389, DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
  • Shifteh Some’e B., Ezani A., Tabari H., 2012, Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran, Atmospheric Research, 113, 1-12, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.016
  • Sinha Ray K.C., De U.S., 2003, Climate change in India as evidenced from instrumental records, Bulletin of the WMO, 52 (1), 53-58
  • Srivastava H.N., Dewan B.N., Dikshit S.K., Prakash Rao G.S., Singh S.S., Rao K.R., 1992, Decadal trends in climate over India, Mausam, 43 (1), 7-20
  • Storch H. von, Navarra A. (eds.), 1995, Analysis of Climate Variability, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg GmbH, 334 pp.
  • Tabari H., Somee B.S., Zadeh M.R., 2011, Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran, Atmospheric Research, 100 (1), 132-140
  • Xu Z., Liu Z., Fu G., Chen Y., 2010,Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years, Journal of Arid Environments, 74 (2), 256-267, DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.08.014
  • Yue S., Pilon P., Phinney B.O.B., 2003, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 51-63, DOI: 10.1623/hysj.

Typ dokumentu



Identyfikator YADDA

JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.