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2018 | 27 | 3 |

Tytuł artykułu

Assessing flood risk dynamics on the oder river within the context of socio-economic consequences and lasting sustainable development

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

EN

Abstrakty

EN
We carried out a probabilistic analysis of the dynamics of flood risks for the selected area of the Oder River basin. The authors based their risk dynamics assessment on results from the distributions of the maximum values for a selected hydrological characteristic, namely flow rate. On the basis of the daily flow data from 1994-2013 collected at a hydrological station on the Oder River in the town of Malczyce, 30-day flow maxima were selected individually for four five-year periods. Then, a probabilistic model of maximal flow was estimated on the basis of these peaks for each five-year period. The resulting models were used to estimate flood risks and analyze the dynamics of the studied area.

Słowa kluczowe

Wydawca

-

Rocznik

Tom

27

Numer

3

Opis fizyczny

p.1269-1279,fig.,ref.

Twórcy

autor
  • Department of Environmental Engineering, Wroclaw University of Technology, Sq. Grunwaldzki 9, 50-377 Wroclaw, Poland
autor
  • Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics, Equation Chapter 1 Section 1 University of Economics in Wroclaw, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw, Poland
autor
  • IMGW-PIB Warsaw Branch, Podlesna 61, 00-001 Warsaw, Poland

Bibliografia

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  • 22. WDOWIKOWSKI M., KAŹMIERCZAK B., LEDVINKA O., Maximum daily rainfall analysis at selected meteorological stations in the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin, Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manage., 4 (1), 53, 2016. (The scope of this study was to assess the usefulness of top probability distributions to describe maximum rainfall data in the Lusatian Neisse River basin, based on eight IMGW- National Research Institute meteorological stations. To describe the measured data, there were used the Fréchet, Gamma, Generalized Exponential Distribution (GED), Gumbel, Log-normal and Weibull distributions.)
  • 23. KUCHAR L., IWAŃSKI S., JELONEK L., SZALIŃSKA W., 2014, Application of spatial weather generator for the assessment of climate change impacts on a river runoff, Geografie, 119 (1), 1, 2014. (3-parameter gamma distribution was found as the best fitting monthly, seasonal and annual distributions of daily runoff basing on K-S and Chi-Square tests.)
  • 24. BANASIAK R., KRZYŻANOWSKI M., Flood Flows in the Odra River in 2010 – quantative and qualitative assessment of ADCP data, Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manage., 3 (1), 11, 2015. (The analysis is that the previously estimated flow risk and peak discharge values for the 2010 flood published previously were underestimated and the final conclusion is that the modern field data acquisition, GIS post processing, and numerical modelling, support each other and improve the final overall result, bringing hydrology products to a higher standard than they would do separately.)
  • 25. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. Application of the extreme value theory in warning forecasting for a sequence of independent variables with a normal distribution. Application of quantitative methods in economic sciences. Zeszyty Naukowe wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu 2 (34), 2013.
  • 26. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. Limits distribution of extremes in warning forecasts of water levels. Zarządzanie i Finanse 3 (2), 147, 2013.
  • 27. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. Distributions of extreme values in the analysis of hydrological hazard in Lower Silesia. Quantitative methods in economics. Zaszyty naukowe nr 811, 305, 2013. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego.
  • 28. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. The use of Poisson distribution to assess the risk of hydrological hazard. Mathematical and econometric methods in finance and insurance. Zeszyty Naukowe Wydziałowe 206, 7, 2013. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach.
  • 29. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. Functions of excess and hazard as a tool in the analysis of flood risk in Lower Silesia. Quantitative methods. Zeszyty naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu 7 (45), 207, 2014. Wydawnictwo Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej w Poznaniu.
  • 30. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. The use of Poisson distribution to assess the risk of hydrological hazard. Mathematical and econometric methods in finance and insurance. Zeszyty Naukowe Wydziałowe 206, 7, 2014.
  • 31. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. Positional statistics in warning forecasts. Application of quantitative methods in economics and management. Red. Stefan Forlicz. Warszaw, 199, 2012.
  • 32. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł., SZAŁATA Ł., ZWOŹDZIAK J. Application of selected probability distributions of extreme values for estimating the risk of flood hazard on the Odra River in Lower Silesia. Ochrona Środowiska 38 (3), 35, 2016.
  • 33. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł., SZAŁATA Ł., ZWOŹDZIAK J. The reality of life during floods. Journal of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 6 (5), 2016.
  • 34. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł., SZAŁATA Ł., ZWOŹDZIAK J. Assessment of variability of flood risk in the Odra basin on the basis of half-yearly distribution of the maximum water levels. Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 454, 102, 2016.
  • 35. YUE S., BOBE B., LEGENDRE P.I BRUNEAU P. The Gumbel mixed model for flood frequency analysis. J. Hydrol., 88, 1999.
  • 36. KUŹMIŃSKI Ł. Limit distribution of extreme values for dependent sequences of random variables. Ekonometria nr 2 (29). Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 2013c.
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  • 42. ZWODŹDZIAK J. Flood risk management plans. Przegląd Komunalny. Przegląd Komunalny, 2015

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikatory

Identyfikator YADDA

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