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2015 | 24 | 1 |
Tytuł artykułu

Effects of changes in precipitation and temperature on select agrophage risk in Poland, 1965-2009

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Agriculture is a branch of the economy seriously influenced by climate change, particularly in terms of the incidence and damage potential of crop agrophages. Precipitation and air temperature recorded over the last 44 years in five select locations in Poland were analyzed in order to determine whether and to what extent climate change had actually occurred. Monthly precipitation totals and mean air temperatures were analyzed in terms of seasons, taking into consideration the course of vegetation of both spring and winter crops and development of pests. The aim of the study was to determine how precipitation and air temperature change and to present a preliminary evaluation of their effects on the level of damages of economically important agrophages, for several decades covered by nationwide monitoring in Poland. On the basis of results of descriptive statistics it was found that the highest value of the coefficient of variation for precipitation over a period of 44 years was recorded in autumn, while for air temperature it was in winter. After the 44-year period had been divided into four 11-year periods, the last 11 years (1999-2009) showed that the mean value of air temperature in relation to the years 1988-98 (1.5ºC) decreased only in winter, although the mean value was still above zero (0.9ºC). In the other seasons in the years 1999-2009 it was the highest. In turn, mean precipitation levels for the last 11 years were highest only in winter. An increase in precipitation in the winter months could have been one of the factors contributing to a reduction of populations of wintering pest stages. Stable precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures in spring could have contributed to the development of e.g. the European corn borer, while it may have limited the intensity of fungal crop diseases.
Słowa kluczowe
Wydawca
-
Rocznik
Tom
24
Numer
1
Opis fizyczny
p.325-332,fig.,ref.
Twórcy
autor
  • Institute of Plant Protection – National Research Institute, Wegorka 20, 60-318 Poznan, Poland
autor
  • Institute of Plant Protection – National Research Institute, Wegorka 20, 60-318 Poznan, Poland
  • Department of Mathematical and Statistical Methods, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznan, Poland
Bibliografia
  • 1. ALCAMO J., MORENO J.M., NOVAK B., BINDI M., COROBOV R., DEVOY R.J.N., GIANNAKOPOULOS C., MARTIN E., OLESEN J.E., SHVIDENKO A. Europe. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 541- 580, 2007.
  • 2. CHRISTENSEN J.H., HEWITSON B., BUSUIOC A., CHEN A., GAO X., HELD I., JONES R., KOLLI R.K., KWON W.-T., LAPRISE R., MAGAÑA RUEDA V., MEARNS L., MENÉNDEZ C.G., RÄISÄNEN J., RINKE A., SARR A., WHETTON P. Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [SOLOMON, S., D. QIN, M. MANNING, Z. CHEN, M. MARQUIS, K.B. AVERYT, M. TIGNOR AND H.L. MILLER (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
  • 3. SERBA T., LEŚNY J., JUSZCZAK R., OLEJNIK J. The effect of climate change on agriculture in Europe, the ADAGIO project – the first stage of realisation. Acta Agrophysica 13, (2), 487, 2009 [In Polish].
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  • 10. BOULLETINS OF THE STATE HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej. Warszawa, 1965-2009 [In Polish].
  • 11. KOZAK M., BOCIANOWSKI J., RYBIŃSKI W. Note on the use of coefficient of variation for data from agricultural factorial experiments. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science 19, (4), 644, 2013.
  • 12. HOYT D.V., SCHATTEN K.H. The Role of the Sun in the Climate Change. Oxford University Press, New York, 1997.
  • 13. KERR R.A. A variable sun paces millennial climate. Science 294, 1431, 2001.
  • 14. DOUGLASS D.H., CLADER, B.D. Climate sensitivity of the Earth to solar irradiance. Geophysical Research Letters 29, doi:10.1029/2002GL015345, 2002.
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.agro-36440eb4-bcee-42a2-8617-4b5e1946babc
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