PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2017 | 26 | 2 |
Tytuł artykułu

Snowmelt runoff modelling under projected climate change patterns in the gilgit river basin of northern Pakistan

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Pakistan is home to three of the world’s largest mountain ranges in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where the majority of Pakistan’s water resources are located: the Himalayan, Karakorum, and Hindu-Kush. This work estimated the (snow+glacier) and rainfall runoff from one of the major tributaries, the Gilgit River, nestled within the UIB of Pakistan. The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) derived by the cryospheric data from the MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) was employed to predict the daily discharges of the Gilgit. The SRM was successfully calibrated, and the simulation was undertaken from 2005 to 2010, with a coefficient of model efficiency ranging from 0.84-0.94. The average contributions of (snow+glacier) and rainfall to the stream flows of the Gilgit from 2001-10 were 78.35% and 21.65%, respectively, derived from the SRM. The representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 were used to investigate the effects of the changes in temperature on climate of the Gilgit catchment. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the air temperature of Gilgit will increase by 3°C, whereas the increase in precipitation will be minor. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (overshooting scenario), air temperature will increase by 10.7°C, whereas precipitation will decrease between 2010 and the end of the 21st century in the Gilgit catchment. The application of the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 mean temperature scenarios in the SRM suggested that with increases in mean temperature of 3.02ºC and 10.7ºC, respectively, the average annual runoff in the Gilgit will increase by 67.03 and 177.5%, respectively, compared with the observed runoff by the end of the 21st century. This increased surface runoff from snow/glacier melt can potentially be utilized by planning new storage areas at appropriate locations to harness additional water.
Słowa kluczowe
EN
Wydawca
-
Rocznik
Tom
26
Numer
2
Opis fizyczny
P.525-542,fig.,ref.
Twórcy
autor
  • State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou 730000, China
autor
  • Centre of Excellence in Water Resource Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
autor
  • State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou 730000, China
  • CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
autor
  • Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
  • University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
autor
  • School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
autor
  • Key Laboratory of Inland River Eco-hydrology, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China
autor
  • Key Laboratory of land Surface Process and Climate Change, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
autor
  • State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou 730000, China
Bibliografia
  • 1. Bookhagen B., Burbank D.W. Towards a complete Himalayan hydrologic budget: the spatiotemporal distribution of snow melt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J. of Geophy. Res., 115, F03019, 2010.
  • 2. Immerzeel W.W, Pellicciotti F., Shrestha A.B. Glaciers as a proxy to quantify the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Hunza basin. Mountain Research and Development, 32, 30, 2012.
  • 3. Immerzeel W.W., Pellicciotti F., Bierkens M.F.P. Rising river flows throughout the twenty first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nature Geoscience 6, 742, 2013.
  • 4. Archer D.R. Contrasting hydrological regimes in the upper Indus basin. J. Hydrol., 274, 198, 2003.
  • 5. Mukhopadhyay B., Khan A.A. Quantitative assessment of the genetic sources of the hydrologic flow regimes in Upper Indus Basin and its significance in a changing climate. Journal of Hydrology, 509, 549, 2014a.
  • 6. Dimri A.P., Yasunari T., Wiltshire A., Kumar P., Mathison C., Ridley J., Mathison C., Jacob D. Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas. Science of Total Environment, 468, 2013.
  • 7. Dimri A.P., Chevuturi A. Model sensitivity analysis study for western disturbances over the Himalayas. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 123,155, 2014.
  • 8. Rasul G., Mahmood A.S., Khan A. Vulnerability of the Indus Delta to Climate Change in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 8 (16), 89, 2012
  • 9. Akhtar M., Ahmad N., Booij M.J. The impact of climate change on the water Resource of Hindu Kush–Karakorum-Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios. J. Hydrol., 355, 148, 2008.
  • 10. Immerzeel W.W., Beek L.P.H., Bierkens M.F.P. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science, 328, 1382, 2010.
  • 11. Kothawale D.R., Revadekar J.V., Kumar K.R. Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India. Journal of Earth System Science, 119, 51, 2010.
  • 12. Bocchiola D., Diolaiuti G. Recent (1980-2009) evidence of Climate Change in the Upper Karakoram, Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 611, 2013.
  • 13. Hewitt K. The Karakoram anomaly? Glacier expansion and the elevation effect, Karakoram Himalaya. Mountain Research and Development, 25, 332, 2005.
  • 14. Gardelle J., Berthier E., Arnaud Y. Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century. Nature Geoscience, 5 (5), 322, 2012b.
  • 15. Bolch T., Kulkarni A., Kääb A., Huggel C., Paul F., Cogley J.G., Stoffel M. The State and Fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science (New York, N.Y.), 336, 310, 2012.
  • 16. Schmidt S., Nüsser M. Changes of high altitude glaciers from 1969 to 2010 in the Trans-Himalayan Kang Yatze Massif, Ladakh, Northwest India. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 44, 107, 2012.
  • 17. Matsuo K., Heki K. Time Variable ice Loss in Asian High Mountains from the Satellite gravimetry. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 290 (1-2), 30, 2010.
  • 18. Hewitt K. Glacier change, concentration, and elevation effects in the Karakoram Himalaya, Upper Indus Basin. Mountain Research and Development, 31 (3), 188, 2011.
  • 19. Sarikaya M.A., Bishop M.P., Shroder J.F., Olsenholler J.A. Space based observations of Eastern Hindu-Kush glaciers between 1976 and 2007, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Remote Sensing Letters, 3 (1), 77, 2012.
  • 20. Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., Linden P.J., Hanson C.E. Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 2007.
  • 21. Adam J.C., Hamlet A.F., Lattenmaier D.P. Implications of Global Climate Change for Snowmelt Hydrology in the Twenty First Century. Hydrological Process, 23, 962, 2009.
  • 22. Panday P.K., Williams C.A., Frey K.E., Brown M.E. Snowmelt runoff modeling in the Tamor River Basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. Department of Geography, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA 01610, 2010.
  • 23. Khattak M.S., Babel M.S., Sharif M. Hydrometeorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan. Climate Research, 46, 103, 2011.
  • 24. Scherler D., Bookhagen B., Strecker M.R. Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nature Geoscience, 4, 156, 2011.
  • 25. Cogley J.G. A more complete version of the world glacier inventory. Annals of Glaciology, 50, 32, 2009.
  • 26. Kargel J.S., Cogley J.G., Leonard G.J., Haritashya U., Byers A. Himalayan glaciers: the big picture is a montage. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108 (36), 14709, 2011.
  • 27. Bash E.A., Marshall S.J. Estimation of Glacier melt Contributions to the bow River, Alberta, Canada, using a radiation Temperature Melt Model. Annals of Glaciology, 55,139, 2014.
  • 28. Agarwal A., Babel M.S., Maskey S. Analysis of future precipitation in the Koshi river basin, Nepal. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 422, 2014.
  • 29. Zemp M., Hoelzle M., Haeberli W. Six decades of glacier mass balance observations: a review of the world monitoring network. Annals of Glaciology, 50 (50), 101, 2009.
  • 30. Fujita K., Nuimura T., Yamaguchi S., Sharma R. Temporal changes in elevation of the debris-covered ablation area of Khumbu Glacier in the Nepal Himalaya since 1978. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 43 (2), 246, 2011.
  • 31. Maidment D.R. “GIS and Hydrologic Modeling”, Plenary Speech at the 2nd International Conference on Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Environmental Modeling, Breckenridge, Colorado, 1993.
  • 32. Sorman A.A., Sensoy A., Tekeli A.E., Sorman A.U., Akyurek Z. Modeling and forecasting snowmelt runoff process using the HBV model in the eastern part of Turkey. Hydrological Process, 23 (7), 1031, 2009.
  • 33. Shakir A.S., Rehman H., Ehsan S. Climate Change Impact on River Flows in Chitral Watershed. Pakistan journal of Engineering & Applied Sciences, 7, 12, 2010.
  • 34. WMO. Intercomparison of models of snowmelt runoff. Operational Hydrology Report 23, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, WMO -No.646, 1986.
  • 35. Hock R. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. Journal of Hydrology, 282 (1-4), 104, 2003.
  • 36. Seidel K., Martinec J. Noaa/Avhrr Monitoring Of Snow Cover for Modeling Climate-Affected Runoff in Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. Proceedings of EARSeL-LISSIG-Workshop Observing our Cryosphere from Space, Bern, March 11-13, 2002.
  • 37. Prasad V.H., Roy P.S. Estimation of Snowmelt runoff in Beas basin, India. Geocarto International, 20 (2), 41, 2005.
  • 38. Mateen H. Snowmelt Runoff Investigation in River Swat using Snowmelt Runoff Model, Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques. M.Sc. Thesis, International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation Enschede, the Netherlands, 2008.
  • 39. Georgievsky M.V. Application of the Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Kuban River basin using MODIS satellite images. Environmental Research Letters, 4, 1, 2009.
  • 40. Tahir A.A., Chevallier P., Arnaud Y., Neppel L., Ahmad B. Modeling Snowmelt-Runoff under climate scenarios in the Hunza River basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology, 409 (1-2), 104, 2011b.
  • 41. WMO. Simulated real-time intercomparison of hydrological models. Operational Hydrology Report 38, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 1992.
  • 42. Li X., Williams M.W. Snowmelt runoff modelling in an arid mountain watershed, Tarim Basin, China. Hydrological Process, 22, 3931, 2008.
  • 43. Martinec J., Rango A., Roberts R. Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) user’s manual. USDA Jornada Experimental Range, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA, 2007.
  • 44. Rango A., Martinec J. Predictions for snow cover, glaciers and runoff in a changing climate. Hydro meteorological Prediction, 277, 2008.
  • 45. Sirguey P., Mathieu R., Arnaud Y., Fitzharris B.B. Seven years of snow cover monitoring with MODIS to model catchment discharge in New Zealand. In: IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Cape Town, 863, 2009.
  • 46. Nafis A., Deryck O., Lodrick. Indus River, Asia; physical features. Article from the Encyclopaedia Britannica. http://www.britannica.com/286872/Indusriver, 2007&2009.
  • 47. Hashmi A.A., Shafiullah A. Agriculture and Food Security. Planning & Development Department, Northern Areas of Pakistan, 2003.
  • 48. Hua H.X., Jian W., Hong-yi L. Evaluation of the NDSI Threshold Value in Mapping Snow Cover of MODIS – A Case S tudy of Snow in the Middle Qilian Mountains. Journal Of Glaciology And Geocryology, 30, 132, 2008.
  • 49. Tekelia A.E, Akyurek Z., Sorman A.A., Sensoy A., Sormana A.U. Using MODIS snow cover maps in modelling snowmelt runoff process in the eastern part. Remote Sensing of Environment, 97, 216, 2005.
  • 50. Hu Y., Maskey S., Uhlenbrook S. Trends in temperature and rainfall extremes in the Yellow River source region, China. Climatic Change, 110, 403, 2012.
  • 51. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker T.F., Qin D., Plattner G.K., Tignor M., Allen S.K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V., and Midgley P.M (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
  • 52. Zhang Y., Liu S., Ding Y. Observed degree-day factors and their spatial variation on glaciers in western China. Annals of Glaciology, 43, 301, 2006.
  • 53. Kotlyakov V.M., Krenke A.N. Investigation of hydrological conditions of alpine regions by glaciological methods. IAHS Publication, 138, 31, 1982.
  • 54. Iqra A., Iqbal J., Mahboob M.A. Modeling mass balance of Upper Indus Basin glaciers in relation with climatic variability. Sci. Int. (Lahore), 28 (3), 2637, 2016.
  • 55. Fowler H.J., Archer D.R. Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate, 19, 4276, 2005.
  • 56. Klemes V. Sensitivity of water resources systems to climate variations. WCP Report 98, Geneva, Switzerland, 1985.
  • 57. Becker A., Serban P. Hydrological models for water resources system design and operation. Operationalal Hydrolgy. Report 34, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 1990.
  • 58. Nash L.L., Gleick J.A. Sensitivity in the stream flow in the Colorado basin to climatic changes. Journal of Hydrology, 125, 221, 1991.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.agro-2e1cc801-145d-442d-8a41-d21ae5628fec
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.