Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2017 | 26 | 6 |
Tytuł artykułu

Commensurability-based flood forecasting in northeastern China

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Northeastern China is one of the largest industrial and agricultural bases in China, but frequent flooding brings huge losses to the people and country. To forecast floods in northeastern China, we used commensurability forecasting techniques and ordered a network structure chart and butterfly structure diagram. The prediction selected extraordinary flooding years that have occurred in the region since 1856, and it used ternary, quinary, and septenary commensurability calculation models for forecasting. It verified the inevitability of flooding in 2013 and showed that northeastern China would be highly prone to flooding in 2017. The specific locations of flooding would be the second Songhua River or Liaohe River. The ordered network structure and butterfly structure diagram are the extension of commensurability, both of which showed perfect symmetry neatly and orderly, and indicated the great possibility of flooding in northeastern China in 2017. Because of spatial distribution in the region, we also picked up four representative sites in the region to subsidiarily forecast the runoff qualitatively. Except for a site that did not have a significant year, the other three sites showed that the runoff in the second Songhua River would be wet in 2017. The idea of this paper is good in the data-starved area and helpful for improving judgment regarding flood trends.
Słowa kluczowe
Opis fizyczny
  • College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, China
  • China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China
  • China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China
  • China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China
  • 1. Amiri E. Forecasting daily river flows using nonlinear time series models. Journal of Hydrology, 527, 1054, 2015.
  • 2. Ahn Kuk-Hyun, Palmer R. Regional flood frequency analysis using spatial proximity and basin characteristics: Quantile regression vs. parameter regression technique. Journal of Hydrology, 540, 515, 2016.
  • 3. Weng Wenbo Basis of Prediction Theory. Petroleum Industry Press, China, 45, 1984 [In Chinese].
  • 4. Deng Julong Grey Prediction and Decision. Huazhong university of science and technology press, China, 15, 1986 [In Chinese].
  • 5. Yan Junping Major natural disasters in time and space symmetry research. Publishing CNS of shaanxi normal university,China, 1, 2013 [In Chinese].
  • 6. Men K.P. Commensurability for Drought and Flood in China with Applications to Prediction. China Disaster Reduction, 9 (2), 14, 1999 [In Chinese].
  • 7. Hu H., Han Y. Prediction of the Hualian Earthquakes in Taiwan and an Extended Discussion on the Method of Commensurability. Applied Geophysics, 2 (3), 194, 2005.
  • 8. Li H., Wu Y., Li X. Mountain Commensurability effect and differences in storm floods between northern and southern sources of the Songhua River Basin. Journal of Mountain Science, 9 (3), 431, 2012.
  • 9. Jin J., Yin S., Yan J. Symmetry and tendency judgment of Ms≥8.0 strong earthquakes in Chile. Geodesy & Geodynamics, 37 (1), 34, 2014.
  • 10. Hu Nana Temporal Evolution and Tendency Judgment of Drought and Flood in Three Provinces in Northeast China. Shaanxi Normal University, 3, 2013 [In Chinese].
  • 11. Qiao Fengxue Study on the characteristics of Heavy Rainfall in Northeast China and the Structure of Nortneast Vortex. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1, 2007 [In Chinese].
  • 12. Jiang Tao Uncertainty Analysis and Recommendations of Flood Forecast in Fengman Reservoir. Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China, 32 (12), 1, 2014 [In Chinese].
  • 13. Wang Guoli, Liang Guohua, Zhu Yongying, et al. Decision-Making Support System of Dynamic Operation on Yunfeng Reservoir Normal Elevation in Flood Season. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 7 (1), 47, 2009 [In Chinese].
  • 14. Li Yanlong Jingpohu Reservoir’s Optimizing Dispatch and Supervision. North China Electric Power University (Beijing), 4, 2009 [In Chinese].
  • 15. GENG Xin-xin, LI Hong-yan Application of Commensurability to Forecast the Flood and Draught Disasters in Nenjiang River Basin. Yellow River, 34 (5), 34, 2012 [In Chinese].
  • 16. YAN Jun-ping, BAI Jing, SU Kun-hui, et al. Research on Symmetry and Tendency of Several Major Natural Disasters. Geogrephical Research, 30 (7), 1159, 2011 [In Chinese].
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.